Three decades of fighting against hunger in Africa: Progress, challenges and opportunities

Tackling hunger is a challenge for many African governments because of its endemic nature on the continent. Many African countries have found it difficult to achieve significant reductions in hunger and malnutrition since 1990. In this paper, we review the progress of African countries in the fight against hunger over the past three decades, using the Global Hunger Index (GHI) scores. Ghana had the best GHI improvement (-53.1%) while Zimbabwe and Central African Republic had slightly increased GHI scores (+1.6%). Within this time period, few countries had significant reductions in their GHI scores, while some suffered increases. Furthermore, in assessing the three indicators of GHI: (i) prevalence of undernourishment (percent population), (ii) prevalence of stunting in children (%) and (iii) prevalence of wasting in children (%), we found that no country in Africa was able to achieve all three targets. Six countries (Tunisia, Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Mauritius and Algeria) were able to achieve targets for two of these while the majority achieved only one. We present country-level evidence of clear links between GHI scores with score for human development, social protection and terrorism. Some challenges that made the zero hunger target a difficult task in Africa are reviewed while opportunities for moving the continent towards the zero-hunger target by 2030 are also explored.


INTRODUCTION
Feeding the over 7 billion people in the world has remained a major challenge for all stakeholders and heads of governments of all nations. In 2019, about 690 million or 8.9 percent of the world population suffered from hunger while about 2 billion did not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food. More than 1 billion are in Asia; 675 million live in Africa while 205 million reside in Latin America (FAO et al. 2020).
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, called Zero Hunger, was set to tackle the importance of food security and nutrition within the wider development agenda, and encourages all member nations to "end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture" by 2030. The five principal targets of SDG 2, as highlighted by the UN are, by 2030, to: (i) end hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food (ii) end all forms of malnutrition (iii) double the productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers (iv) ensure sustainable food production systems and implementing resilient agricultural practices (v) maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, plants, and animals.
The three main SDG2 implementing mechanisms are to: (i) increase investment through enhanced international cooperation (ii) correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets and (iii) adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information (UN 2017).
Understanding the term "hunger" is defined by FAO as "an uncomfortable or painful physical sensation caused by insufficient consumption of dietary energy. It becomes chronic when the person does not consume a sufficient number of calories (dietary energy) on a regular basis to lead a normal, active and healthy life" (FAO et al. 2019). The "Zero Hunger" target focus aims not only to "eradicate hunger", but also to "ensure access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round" (SDG Target 2.1) and to "eradicate all forms of malnutrition" (SDG Target 2.2) (FAO et al. 2019).
Hunger is endemic in most sub regions of Africa, with prevalence of undernourishment (POU) (measured as the share of the population whose caloric intake is insufficient) as the main indicator for monitoring progress in eradicating hunger globally. The POU in Africa increased from 192.6 million in 2005 to 250.3 million in 2019 and was projected to reach 433.2 million by 2030 as shown in Tables 1a and 1b. East and West Africa witnessed higher increases in the number of undernourished people, from 95 million to 117.9 million and 36.9 million to 117.9 million respectively, between 2005 and 2019 (FAO et al. 2020).
Since the inaugural edition of the Global Hunger Index in 2006, there has been steady and consistent reports tracking progress made towards ending hunger at national, regional and global levels. In this paper, we combine GHI data with other sources to assess the progress made by Africa in the fight against hunger in the last thirty years (1990 to 2019) highlighting the challenges and opportunities.

Genesis of Hunger
How serious are the nations of the world about ending hunger any time soon? According to Kent (2019), there has not been much deliberation on the root cause of hunger in the world. However,  many people believe that increase in hunger is linked to global food shortages occasioned by spike in population growth. Kent (2019), identified three underlying causes of overly persistent and growing world hunger, summarized as (i) "Disjunction": hunger and poverty like Siamese twins chronically persisted because the people who have the power to solve hunger problems are not suffering from hunger (ii) "Compassion": people who have the power to assist in tackling hunger seem not to have compassion for the powerless, weak and most vulnerable (iii) "Material interests": the powerful always serve the interests of the powerful and not the powerless, because the powerless do not benefit the powerful and this makes them be at the mercy of the powerful to exploit them (Kent 2019). This can also be referred to as "having the poor feed the rich" (Kent 2016;. There is a widening gap between the rich and the poor in the world and this cannot the separated from the cause of increasing level of hunger in the world especially in Africa (Luhby 2019;Matthews 2019;Roser 2016;Kent 2019).

Types of Hunger
Poverty, undernourishment and micronutrient deficiency are considered the principal causes of hunger. Hunger situation may be grouped into three types and these are common on the African continent. They are acute, chronic and hidden hunger.
Acute hunger is generally regarded as the most extreme form of hunger and refers to a situation of undernourishment over a short period of time (Behera et al. 2019). It is commonly measured by comparing weight with the standard weight for a person's height, called "weight for height." Acute hunger could be triggered by crises like drought, wars and disasters. It may be a second-degree hunger affecting those that are already chronically hungry. In Africa, 5 countries facing acute hunger include DRC, Ethiopia, Nigeria (northern region), South Sudan and Sudan. Other countries aside from Africa are Haiti, Syrian Arab Republic, Venezuela, Afghanistan and Yemen (Behera et al. 2019;FSIN GRFC 2020).
Chronic hunger is a situation where a person does not consume adequate energy in their food to maintain a normal and active life over a longer period of time. In children it is most commonly measured as height for age compared to a standard and in adults as calorie intake compared to standard. It is usually linked to poverty among the poor and most vulnerable groups. This category of people do not possess adequate resources for healthy nutrition, potable water and access to healthcare. In Africa, more than 300 million suffer from chronic hunger while about 235 million are from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Tumushabe 2018 GHI scores and ranks are calculated and determined annually to identify and assess progress and setbacks in ending hunger by country. It is a tool for comparing hunger severity and persistence among nations, proffering feasible strategies for combating the menace among nations with worst-hit scenarios (von Grebmer et al. 2019). GHI scores are computed using a three-step procedure that utilises available data from several sources to capture the multidimensional nature of hunger in each nation (von Grebmer et al. 2018;. From the first publication of GHI in 2006 to 2014, the values calculated were based on three weighted fundamental indicators: (i) the proportion of undernourished as percentage of population (ii) the prevalence of underweight in children < 5 years and (iii) the under-five mortality rate (Weismann, 2006). In 2015, "children underweight" was split into two, as "child wasting" and "child stunting" resulting in four indicators which are currently being used (von Grebmer et al. 2019;Otekunrin et al. 2019). The computation process described in von Grebmer et al. (2019) and other previous editions of GHI, results in GHI scores on a 100-point GHI Severity Scale where 0 is the best score (no incidence of hunger) and 100 (the worst), ranked as low (˂ 9.9), moderate (10.0-19.9), serious (20.0-34.9), alarming (35.0-49.9) and extremely alarming (≥ 50).
The prevalence of hunger in Africa witnessed some reductions  in some sub regions especially in North Africa, while a larger percentage of the continent still face major challenges in reducing hunger.  Comparing the GHI scores of countries from 1990-2019, two countries, Central African Republic (CAR) and Zimbabwe experienced positive increases (+1.7 and +1.1 respectively) in their GHI scores. Countries with large reductions in GHI scores are Ethiopia (-42.8), Angola (-37.5), Malawi (-35.9), Mozambique (-35.7) and Niger (-34.5). All the North African countries except Libya recorded a reduction in their GHI score though the region had the lowest prevalence of hunger within the period. Central African countries had the highest GHI scores; with CAR having the highest GHI score in 2019 and ranked lowest in Africa and globally.
The overall change in the proportion of undernourished (that is, those whose calorie intake was insufficient) in African countries with available data from 1990 to 2019 is shown in Figure 1. Some countries were not captured in this three-decade assessment mainly due to lack of sufficient data occasioned by many challenges like wars and conflict events: Cabo Verde, Burundi, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Sao Tome and Principe, Somalia, Libya, South Sudan, Seychelles and Sudan (was only captured in 2019).

Sub-Regional Assessment of hunger in Africa in three Decades
Tables 3a-3e show the prevalence and severity of hunger in African sub-regions based on changes in the GHI scores from 1990-2019. In North Africa, Morocco had greatest reduction (-33.1%) while Egypt had the largest increase (-16.8%). In East Africa, Ethiopia had the highest reduction (-42.5%) while Uganda had the largest increase (-13.1%). In Central Africa, Chad had the highest reduction with -19.1% while CAR had its GHI score increased by +1.6%. In Southern Africa, Malawi had the highest reduction (-43.8%) while Zimbabwe experienced a +1.6% increase. West Africa had the highest reduction in scores among the five African sub-regions. Ghana had -53.1% reduction while Cote d'Ivoire had the largest increase (-15.2%).

Prevalence and Severity of Hunger in Africa in three decades
Hunger has many faces and it is insufficient to capture food availability alone (Weismann 2006). The four indicators of the GHI, mentioned previously, are easy and simple ways of assessing hunger prevalence and severity globally.      The report stated that the prevalence of severe food insecurity is expected to approximate the POU, explaining that both indicators revealed the gravity of food unavailability. The second indicator (FIES) reflected range of food-insecurity severity that incorporated moderate levels. This is in furtherance to the quest of monitoring progress in line with lofty target of guaranteeing unhindered access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food by all people-SDG Target 2.1 (FAO et al. 2019). According to the report, the total number of both moderate and severe food-insecure population is higher in Africa region than any other part of the world. In 2019, 135 million people in 55 countries of the world suffered from acute food crises, with 73 million of them coming from 36 countries in Africa (FAO et al. 2019;FSIN GRFC 2020).   right especially in the pursuit of achieving the SDG 2. Africa is far from achieving zero hunger (SDG Center for Africa and Sustainable Development Solutions Network 2019). In this review, we assess three out of six (prevalence of obesity, cereal yield and fertilizer consumption were not captured in GHI reports) important indicators of SDG 2 namely: Prevalence of Undernourished population (%), prevalence of wasting in under-five children (%) and prevalence of stunting in under-five children (%)) which are also part of the four GHI indicators. We used both Global and Africa SDG thresholds (rating) to identify African countries that have achieved each of these indicators at the end of 2019. The Africa SDG index rating shows a country's position between the worst (0) and best (100) outcomes. It is a comprehensive rating based on all the 17 SDGs.  Otekunrin et al. 2019c).

GHI indicators contained in SDG2 indicators
In addition to the GHI reports that revealed some of the SDG 2 indicators, reports from FAO, United Nations Children's Fund (   In 2016, among adults, male underweight reduced from 11.1 percent in 2000 to 8.6 percent while female underweight dropped from 11.5 percent to 9.4 percent. In comparison, overweight rose from 31.7 percent (609.8 million) to 39.2 percent (1.02 billion) in women, and in men from 29.7 percent (560.0 million) to 38.5 percent (984.6 million). Also, obesity in men rose from 6.7% (124.7 million) to 11.1% (284.1 million) while it increased from 10.6% (201.8 million) to 15.1% (393.5 million) in women (Global Nutrition Report 2020).

Cases of high incidences of pests and diseases in
Other factors that exacerbate hunger challenges in Africa include low Human Development index (HDI), terrorism and the low percentage of the population benefiting from social protection measures. Table 6 reveals the association between hunger and some influencers of hunger and food insecurity in Africa.
The hardest hit countries are in Central and Eastern Africa. These include Central African Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Somalia and South Sudan with higher numbers of undernourished people and under-five mortality rates when compared to the other regions of Africa (FAO 2017a;UN IGME 2017;FAO GIEWS 2017;UNHCR 2018a;FEWS NET 2017b;FEWS NET 2018b;USAID 2017a;Otekunrin et al. 2019a;2019b;Behera et al. 2019a; World Data Lab 2019).

GHI and HDI in Africa
Many African countries, persistently have very low Human Development Index. In 2019 HDI scores, the best in Africa were the Seychelles, ranked (62 nd ), Mauritius (66 th ), Algeria (82 nd ), Tunisia (91 st ), and South Africa (113 th ) among 189 countries captured in 2019 ranking (UNDP 2019). Table 6 reveals 2019 GHI scores of African countries and their corresponding HDI ranks while Figure 5 shows the scatter plot with trend line between the two variables. The Correlation Coefficient r = 0.68 shows that there is positive association between the two variables, suggesting that hunger and HDI are strongly related in Africa. For example, Chad with GHI score of 44.2 was ranked 187 while Mauritius with a lower GHI score of 9.6 was ranked 66 th among 189 countries.

GHI and percent population covered by social protection in Africa
Only about 21% of the African countries' population (43 with available data) were covered by Social Protection (SP) (World Bank 2018). Botswana was highest with 91.6%, with Togo lowest with 0%. Table 6 shows the 2019 GHI scores of African countries and the percent population covered by social protection scheme while Figure 6 shows a scatter plot with trend line between the two variables.
The Correlation Coefficient r = -0.45 reveals that there is negative association between the two variables, indicating that social protection programmes and prevalence of hunger are negatively related in Africa.    Table 6 shows the 2019 GHI scores of African countries and their corresponding 2019 GTI scores in Africa. GTI scores range from 10 (very high impact) to 0 (no impact)). Figure 7 shows the scatter plot with trend line between the two variables. The Correlation Coefficient r = 0.23 reveals that there is weak association between the two variables indicating that terrorism and prevalence of hunger are positively related in Africa. The r may be weak because data are often lacking from the most affected countries. Most of the other countries in Africa are either having very low or no impact of terrorism. We capture only those with impact starting from 3. Most of the countries in Africa do not experience severe acts of terrorism but there are 9 African countries in the top 20 with very high impact of terrorism. Nigeria was ranked 3 rd (8.597) globally and 1 st in Africa in 2018.  Most countries with high impact of terrorism tend to have high prevalence of hunger. For example, CAR with GTI of 6.622 has a GHI score of 53.6, and Niger with a GTI score of 5.596 has GHI score of 30.2 (FAO et al. 2019;FSIN 2019;IEP 2019).
Opportunities to explore in the fight against hunger and malnutrition across Africa There is no doubt that Africa can feed itself if there is political will on the part of heads of governments to intensify efforts in the fight against hunger and all forms of malnutrition. The Malabo Montpellier Panel in 2017 provides a roadmap for African governments for intensifying efforts towards the implementation of the nutrition targets rolled out by the Malabo Declaration and SDGs (Malabo Montpellier Report 2017). Selected practices that can help include: • Heads of governments in Africa need to raise food and nutrition security to a topmost policy priority. • Policy makers need to work in collaboration with other key stakeholders (national, private and development partners) to deliver nutrition-sensitive outcomes. • African governments need to incorporate nutrition into agricultural policy, rural development plans, social protection, and education to guarantee nutrition-sensitive contents as part of the new policies and key interventions/programmes. • African governments are encouraged to embrace Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) to achieve sustainable food security through crop diversity. Adoption of climate resilient crop varieties should be embraced, based on a Cost-Benefit (B/C) analysis. • Fervidly tackling the issue of conflicts, wars and acts of terrorism which are currently driving hunger and malnutrition in some regions of Africa. • Scaling up resilient food systems across Africa to combat the effect of extreme weather conditions and variability that tend to hamper the progress on nutrition and other nutritionrelated intervention. • Provision of current and relevant data for more effective and efficient interventions across Africa. • African governments should do more in empowering women's groups. Women should be involved in decision making with opportunities to own or control resources, especially those related to food, nutrition and healthcare. • Investing in agricultural and nutrition research to improve productivity in nutrient-rich foods.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The high prevalence of hunger and food insecurity in Africa has been a source of concern for the continent and the global community especially in the last three decades. Some African countries (especially from North Africa) have made remarkable progress in reducing their levels of hunger and malnutrition within this period. Many other countries (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) have either stagnated or off the track of SDG2 attainment. Indeed, no African country has achieved the SDG2 (zero hunger) target.
Threats to zero hunger attainment in Africa include poverty, corruption, low human capital development, conflicts and extreme weather conditions. The present report provides country-level evidence of clear links between GHI scores with score for human development, social protection and terrorism. African governments are enjoined to keep hunger and food insecurity on both domestic and international agenda. Member countries should work together to end hunger on the continent.